April 21, 2025
Revising Our S&P 500 Target Amid a Storm of Uncertainty
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist, LPL Financial
Clouds of uncertainty continued to hang over U.S. equity markets last week. The S&P 500 slid 1.5% as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets. Treasury yields declined significantly across the curve, including 0.15–0.20% drops in 2- and 10-year notes, while gold rallied 6.6% and touched record highs intraweek. Big tech and cyclical sectors underperformed. Tariff uncertainty captured most of the blame for the risk-off rotation, but earnings have now “entered the chat.” Several companies pulled forward guidance due to a lack of clarity on trade and/or flagged developing downside risk to growth. Tech giant NVIDIA (NVDA) made headlines after warning of a $5.5 billion revenue hit after the White House restricted the company from exporting its H20 chip to China. The vast unknowns on trade policy have further muddied the outlook on inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy. Based on this backdrop, LPL Research maintains its tactical neutral (not negative) stance on equities and is introducing a revised S&P 500 price target. More on that below.
2025 Market Outlook - LPL Financial
